Week ten of the FanDuel Fantasy Football season is nearly here. Last week sure was interesting to say the least.
One of the readers asked me how I go about gathering the information I use to make my final five touts for Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers and Tight Ends so I thought I would use my First Glance to demonstrate how I arrive at the conclusions that I do.
I will use this week’s Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints game as a guide.
This week Saints QB Drew Brees ($8200) is at home against a Denver Broncos defense that is first in the NFL against the pass; that defense is allowing just 189 passing yards a game and just six touchdowns this season. They also have eight interceptions this season. Five of those passing touchdowns Denver allowed were on the road.
Experts say the way to beat Denver is on the ground; and Latavius Murray had a monster game against the Broncos with 114 yards and three touchdowns. Those three touchdowns are the only rushing touchdowns the Broncos have allowed on the road this season.
Last week the Saints rushed for 248 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers. Saints RB Mark Ingram ($6300) went for 158 yards and a touchdown and Saints RB Tim Hightower ($6200) ran for 87 yards and a touchdown.
Now let’s flip this around and look at the Broncos offense; the numbers tell us that the Broncos throw the ball better on the road than at home; Broncos QB’s have thrown for 1021 yards and nine touchdowns with just one interception; rushing the ball is a different story as the Broncos have only netted 258 yards on just 85 attempts on the road.
The Saints passing defense is atrocious; they are allowing a league worst 300 passing yards a game and 11 touchdowns this season; six of those touchdowns came against them at home.
The Saints rushing defense isn’t that much better allowing 108.5 yards a game and 12 touchdowns this season with only two of those touchdowns at home.
I don’t usually look at injuries until Thursday or Friday;
Weather isn’t a concern as this game is being played in a Dome. Usually I check this site for the weather.
Vegas has set a 48 point over under with the Saints an early week one point favorite. I usually refer with this site twice a day and watch the line movements.
Players I like from this game;
QB Drew Brees ($8200) at home is always a consideration. If I am going to play him I would most likely look to WR Michael Thomas ($6400) and his nearly eight targets a game including eight red zone targets for four touchdowns this season. Saints TE Coby Fleener ($5500) has caught five of the nine red zone targets he’s seen for a touchdown so I might also consider Fleener.
From the Broncos you can consider QB Trevor Siemian ($7200) and he does have a strong group of receivers in Demaryius Thomas ($7500) and Emmanuel Sanders ($6900). Outside of that I would probably leave this game alone although you might want to consider RB Devontae Booker ($7800). After that awful game he had last week against Oakland owners might be a bit sour on him.
I do this for each game on the FanDuel main slate and then narrow my choices down to five.
Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers ($9000) seems to make this space each and every week. He has an interesting matchup on the road against a Tennessee Titans team allowing 260.4 passing yards a game and 14 touchdowns this season. The weather should be sunny and clear and that is good for Rodgers and his 23.1 FanDuel points and 254.9 yards per game. He’s also thrown 20 touchdowns this season and used his feet to take two more to the house. The over under in this one is currently 49.5 points with the Packers an early week 2.5 point favorite.
It will be sunny and clear when the Arizona Cardinals host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday and I really like Cardinals QB Carson Palmer ($7900). This season Palmer is averaging 16.2 FanDuel points and 295.4 passing yards a game. Palmer has also thrown ten touchdown passes this season and he’ll go up against a 49er defense allowing just 235 passing yards a game but 18 touchdowns this season. The over under on this game is currently 48.5 points with the Cardinals an early week 13 point favorite. With many probably looking to Cardinals RB David Johnson this week Palmer might go overlooked and could steal the show on Sunday.
Tennessee Titans QB Marcus Mariota ($7400) has been on fire lately and with the weather supposed to be clear and sunny all that’s left to put the fire out is a Green Bay Packer defense allowing 246 passing yards a game and 14 touchdowns. Mariota is averaging 19.4 FanDuel points this season and over his last five games is averaging 24.76 FanDuel points a game. Mariota is also averaging 243 passing yards a game and has thrown 17 touchdown passes and rushed for two more this season. We already talked about the high over under and the Titans are a 2.5 point home underdog so maybe the red hot Mariota can get it done one more time this week against Green Bay!!
I know this might be an odd pick this week but I really like Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz ($6800) against a Atlanta Falcons defense allowing 289.6 passing yards a game and 23 touchdowns this season. Wentz is averaging 13.8 FanDuel points and 236.3 passing yards a game this season and has also thrown nine touchdown passes. The skies should be sunny and clear for this one and the Eagles are currently a one point home favorite with a 50 point over under. I like everything about this game and mostly I like the Eagles Wentz.
Denver Broncos QB Trevor Siemian ($7200) has a very good matchup indoors against the New Orleans Saints. Siemian is averaging 13.4 FanDuel points, 221.3 passing yards a game with ten touchdown passes this season. The Saints passing defense is allowing a league worst 300 yards a game and 11 touchdowns this season. There is a 49.5 point over under with the Saints an early week one point home favorite. I know Siemian has put up a couple of stinkers the last couple of weeks but the price is right and the Saints defense is really bad so why not Siemian this week!
Arizona Cardinals RB David Johnson ($9400) is going to be extremely chalky this week as everyone and I mean EVERYONE is talking about his matchup with a San Francisco Giants defense allowing a NFL worst 193 rushing yards a game and 12 touchdowns this season. The Cardinals are favored by 13 points in a 49 point over under so I think we can expect Johnson to tear up the 49ers at home. Johnson is averaging 21.8 FanDuel points a game and has 705 rushing yards and eight touchdowns this season. Johnson is pricey but hard to fade this week.
It feels almost like chasing points but San Diego Chargers RB Melvin Gordon ($8300) has an incredible matchup at home this week against a Miami Dolphins defense allowing 136.1 rushing yards a game and seven touchdowns this season. Gordon is averaging 20.1 FanDuel points a game and has 768 rushing yards and nine touchdowns this season. Gordon also has 284 receiving yards and two touchdowns this season. Vegas has set a 49 point over under with the Chargers an early week four point favorite. Gordon is a nice pivot from Johnson especially if you decide to use Cardinals QB Carson Palmer this week.
Carolina Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart ($6800) has a terrific matchup at home Sunday against a Kansas City Chiefs defense allowing 124.5 rushing yards a game but only three touchdowns this season. Two of those touchdowns the Chiefs have allowed have been on the road. This season Stewart is averaging 11.2 FanDuel points a game and 279 rushing yards and four touchdowns this season. Stewart is still involved in 34 percent of the snap counts and the way Vegas sees this game (44 point over under) and the Panthers being an early week three point favorite makes me think Stewart might be a good value play this Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars RB T.J. Yeldon ($5500) has a great home matchup against a Houston Texans defense allowing 125.8 rushing yards a game and ten touchdowns this season. Yeldon has been solid this season gaining 253 yards and scoring just one touchdown this season good enough for 8.4 yards a game. Yeldon is also involved in 64 percent of the snap counts and with the under being set at 42 points with the Texans an early week one point favorite I like the possibilities this week for Yeldon. And that price point allows all types of possibilities for you on Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott ($8900) has been my go to guy the entire season and he hasn’t really let me down rushing for 890 yards and seven touchdowns this season good for 19.1 FanDuel points a game. This week Elliott is on the road against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense allowing 99.8 rushing yards a game and eight touchdowns this season. Elliott is involved in 71.30 percent of the snap counts this season and with a 50 point over under and Pittsburgh an early week 2.5 point favorite I see a high scoring slugfest under clear skies this week.
Seattle Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin ($6900) has a terrific matchup with a New England Patriots secondary allowing the opposing WR1 to average 90.7 yards per game and 262.8 passing yards a game plus have given up nine touchdowns this season. Baldwin has 570 yards and two touchdowns this season good for 11.3 FanDuel points a game. Vegas has the over under set at 48.5 points with the Patriots an early week 7.5 point favorite. The weather forecast is clear skies for Sunday night and I like the price and I like the possibilities for this Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill ($4700) has a great matchup with a Carolina Panthers defense allowing 304.8 receiving yards a game and 17 touchdowns this season PLUS they have allowed whoever is lined up in the slot or third spot to average 54.8 yards per game. Over the past two weeks Hill has seen 11 targets for eight receptions and a touchdown. If Chiefs WR Jeremy Maclin is out this week Hill most likely will be lining up at WR1 and the Panthers allow 102.1 yards a game to the WR1. Either way Hill is a very nice play at a low cost in a game featuring a 44.5 point over under with the home team Panthers a slim three point favorite.
Dallas Cowboys WR Dez Bryant ($7500) has a very solid matchup Sunday with a Pittsburgh Steelers defense allowing the WR1 to average 89.2 yards a game. This season Bryant has 282 yards and two touchdowns to his credit and a FanDuel average of 9.6 points a game. The Steelers are an early week 2.5 point favorite and there is a 50 point over under in this one. It should also be a clear afternoon in Pittsburgh and I have a feeling Bryant will go overlooked, underowned and folks will be sorry they didn’t use Bryant this week against the Steelers.
Tennessee Titans WR Rishard Matthews ($5800) has a nice matchup with a Green Bay Packers defense allowing 267 yards a game and 14 touchdowns this season. Matthews has 48 targets on the season catching 33 of them for 420 yards and five touchdowns. He’s also averaging 9.8 FanDuel points per game and has five touchdowns in his last five games. The Packers are an early week three point road favorite and the over under is currently 49.5 points. It will be a partly cloudy afternoon in Nashville and I have a very good feeling Matthews is going to be very successful against the Packers this Sunday.
I am a big fan of Minnesota Vikings WR Stefon Diggs ($6700) and his matchup this Sunday against a Washington Redskins defense allowing the WR1 to average 89.8 yards a game is something I want to exploit this week. Diggs has caught 48 of the 66 targets thrown his way for 546 yards and two touchdowns this season. That is good for 13.1 FanDuel points a game. Vegas has set the over under at 41.5 points with the Redskins an early week three point favorite. This is going to be a low scoring game under clear skies and Diggs could be money in the bank for you this week.
Washington Redskins TE Jordan Reed ($7000) has a terrific matchup with a Minnesota Vikings defense allowing TE’s to average 65.2 yards per game. Reed has been very good this season with 42 receptions on 59 targets for 415 yards and three touchdowns this season. Reed also has eight red zone targets hauling in six of those for two touchdowns. All of that is good for 13.4 FanDuel points a game. The skies in Washington will be sunny and Vegas has set the over under at 41.5 points with the Redskins an early week three point favorite. I like Reed this week and think he can do some damage against the Vikings.
Tennessee Titans TE Delanie Walker ($6200) has a terrific matchup at home against a Green Bay Packers defense allowing TE’s to average 64 yards a game. Walker has 33 receptions for 447 yards and four touchdowns and has five red zone targets catching three of them all for touchdowns. Walker is averaging 10.7 FanDuel points a game this season. Vegas has set the over under at 49.5 points with the Packers an early week three point road favorite. The skies will be clear and I suspect Walker will be putting in plenty of work this Sunday against the Packers.
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce ($6300) has a great matchup with a Carolina Panthers defense allowing TE’s to average 74.9 yards a game. This season Kelce has caught 39 passes for 435 yards and three touchdowns; Kelce also has 11 red zone targets catching six of them for all three of his touchdowns this season. Kelce is also averaging 10.1 FanDuel points a game. Vegas has set the over under at 44 points with Carolina being an early three point favorite. The skies will be sunny and hopefully Kelce sees a few red zone targets, avoids getting ejected from this game and scores a couple of touchdowns this week.
Philadelphia Eagles TE Zach Ertz ($4600) has a solid matchup with an Atlanta Falcons defense allowing TE’s to average 60 yards a game. This season Ertz has 23 receptions for 247 yards and has three red zone targets but has yet to score a touchdown this season and is averaging six FanDuel points a game. There is a huge over under of 50 points and it’s a pick ‘em game so I expect to see plenty of points under sunny skies in Philly this weekend!
Dallas Cowboys TE Jason Witten ($5400) is one of my favorites and he has a great matchup with a Pittsburgh Steelers defense allowing TE’s to average 60 yards a game. This season Witten has 38 receptions for 424 yards and two touchdowns as well as 16 red zone targets and has caught nine of those for one touchdown. Witten is also averaging 9.1 FanDuel points a game. Vegas has set the over under at 50 points with the home team Steelers a two point favorite. The skies will be sunny on Sunday and hopefully Witten will have a great game on Sunday.
Good luck at FanDuel this week!!