Underdogs. Everyone likes the underdog, right? In my recently released book, Betting Football 101: Winning Strategies for NFL and NCAA Football, I spent some time discussing this very thing.
Enjoy the free excerpt and hopefully, this will encourage you to make wiser choices with better results betting on underdogs. If you like what you see, then please purchase Betting Football 101 at Amazon!
If you want to make money wagering on football, then you will need to bet on a fair share of underdogs.
You don’t have to win as many underdog bets to make a profit either.
Last season, NFL underdogs went a robust 131-116-9 and 2123-2090 since 2003, according to Bet Lab Sports. It makes sense to go with the underdogs and it makes you money to do so in the long term.
If you were to wager only fifty underdog bets at an average of +130, you would only need to go 22-28 in order to make a profit.
It sure sounds easier than the 52.4 percent we discussed earlier in this book, doesn’t it?
If it were only that easy.
The most important thing to remember is these teams are underdogs for a reason and we need to be mindful of this throughout the handicapping process.
While there are many “systems” out there, over the years we’ve learned the following things that might be helpful to you.
Eliminate Underdogs of Over +150
These are huge underdogs and as enticing as it might be to wager only $50 dollars to win $100, the odds of winning these bets make them a bit too risky for our blood.
We’ve already seen how underdogs fare overall and that also includes underdogs in Divisional matchups. Divisional rivals meet each other twice in the regular season and this is where we can maybe find some value.
One thing that I like to do is consider an underdog who lost the first division matchup where the winning team covered the spread. The numbers still have to be there but this is a situation that we can possibly find an edge.
Road underdogs in divisional matchups can make for a good opportunity but the numbers have to be there for us to pull the trigger. We don’t want to make blind bets based on hunches but we must consider road underdogs in divisional games.
Don’t Bet on Underdogs During a Losing Streak
Betting on a team during a losing streak of three games or more because you feel that team is “due” to win a tackle football game is a gambler’s fallacy. Never, I repeat, NEVER chase bad numbers in this situation because this is a recipe for disaster. We only make wagers when we feel we have an edge and not on wishful thinking.
Betting Early Season Underdogs
This is something I like to do and sometimes we can find some real value with an early-season underdog.
The public loves the big-name teams and sometimes these teams aren’t as good as advertised.
Sometimes bettors are influenced by preseason results that may or may not be indicative of how good, or bad, an NFL team really is.
The books usually make adjustments as the season goes and if the oddsmakers are going to make a mistake, it will be early in the season. We have to be ready to hammer those mistakes when we see them.
Just be sure your stats back give the underdog an edge, and if they do, then you should go with your research and bet that dawg!!
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